Polycarbonate (PC) Palasitika Mea Matagofie Va'aiga Maketi mo le 2025

Aotelega Fa'atonu

O le maketi o oloa auina atu i fafo o le polycarbonate (PC) i le lalolagi atoa ua sauni mo suiga taua i le 2025, faʻamalosia e ala i le faʻaleleia o mamanu manaʻoga, faʻatonuga faʻaauau, ma fefaʻatauaʻiga geopolitical. I le avea ai o se palasitika faʻainisinia maualuga, o loʻo faʻaauau pea ona faia e le PC se sao taua i taʻavale, mea tau eletise, ma fomaʻi, faʻatasi ai ma le maketi o oloa auina atu i fafo e fuafua e oʻo atu i le $ 5.8 piliona i le faaiuga o le tausaga 2025, faʻatupulaia i le CAGR o le 4.2% mai le 2023.

Avetaavale Maketi ma Faiga

1. Fa'atupulaia o Manaoga Fa'apitoa

• Fa'aeletise Ta'avale Fa'aeletise: PC fa'atau atu mo vaega o le EV (taulaga fa'atumu, fale maa, ta'iala moli) fa'amoemoe e fa'atupula'ia 18% YoY
• 5G Fa'alautele Atina'e: 25% fa'atuputeleina o mana'oga mo vaega PC maualuga i feso'ota'iga.
• Fa'afouga Fa'afoma'i Mea Fa'afoma'i: Fa'atupula'ia le fa'atauina atu o PC fa'afoma'i-va'aiga mo mea faigaluega ta'oto ma meafaigaluega fa'apitoa

2. Fa'aitulagi Export Dynamics

Asia-Pasefika (65% o oloa auina atu i fafo)

• Saina: Fa'atumauina le pule fa'atasi ma le 38% o sea maketi ae o lo'o feagai ma pa fa'atau
• Korea i Saute: Tulai mai e avea ma taʻitaʻi lelei ma le 12% faʻateleina faʻatau atu i PC maualuga
• Iapani: Taula'i i togi fa'apitoa PC mo fa'aoga mata

Europa (18% o oloa auina atu i fafo)

• Siamani ma Holani e ta'imua i le fa'atauina atu o le PC fa'atino maualuga
• 15% si'itaga i uta PC toe fa'aaogaina (rPC) e fa'amalieina mana'oga fa'ata'amilo o le tamaoaiga

Amerika i Matu (12% o oloa auina atu i fafo)

• O oloa auina atu i fafo a Amerika ua agai atu i Mekisiko i lalo o aiaiga a le USMCA
• Ua tula'i mai Kanata e tu'uina atu isi mea fa'avae PC

Va'aiga Fefa'ataua'iga ma Tau

1. Fuafuaga Tau o Mea Mata

• Benzene tau o loʻo vaʻaia i le $ 850- $ 950 / MT, e aʻafia ai tau o le gaosiga o PC
• O tau FOB e auina atu i Asia e faamoemoe e $2,800-$3,200/MT mo vasega masani
• Fa'afoma'i-grade PC totogifuapauina e o'o atu i le 25-30% luga a'e tulaga masani

2. Aafiaga Faiga Faavae Fefaatauaiga

• E ono 8-12% tau i luga o le PC Saina e auina atu i fafo i EU ma Amerika i Matu
• E mana'omia ni tusipasi fou mo le fa'aulufale mai a Europa (EPD, Cradle-to-Cradle)
• Fete'ena'iga fefa'ataua'iga a Amerika-Saina e maua ai avanoa mo le au fa'atau atu a Asia i Sautesasae

Fa'afanua Tauvaga

Fuafuaga Autu mo le auina atu i fafo mo le 2025

1. Oloa Fa'apitoa: Atina'e le mumu ma mata'i mata maualuga togi
2. Taulaiga Fa'aauau: Fa'afaigaluegaina i tekinolosi toe fa'aaogaina vaila'au
3. Fa'avasegaina Fa'aitulagi: Fa'atuina o gaosiga i atunu'u o ASEAN e fa'afefe ai tau

Luitau ma Avanoa

Lu'itau Tele

• 15-20% si'itaga o tau o le tausisia mo tusipasi REACH ma FDA
• Fa'atauvaga mai isi mea (PMMA, PET fa'aleleia)
• Fa'alavelave fa'atauga i le Sami Ulaula ma le Canal Panama e a'afia ai tau o felauaiga

Avanoa Fa'atetele

• Sasa'e Tutotonu ulufale atu i maketi ma le gaosiga fou gafatia
• Aferika o loʻo faʻatupulaia maketi faʻaulufale mai mo le fausiaina-grade PC
• Le tamaoaiga fa'ata'amilomilo fa'atupuina le $1.2 piliona maketi mo PC toe fa'aaogaina fa'atau atu

Faaiuga ma Fautuaga

O le 2025 PC fa'atau atu maketi o lo'o tu'uina atu uma lu'itau ma avanoa taua. E tatau i tagata fa'atau atu fafo ona:

1. Fa'avasega fa'avae gaosiga e fa'aitiitia ai a'afiaga fa'a-geopolitical
2. Teu fa'afaigaluega i gaosiga gafataulimaina e fa'afetaui tulaga fa'a-EU ma Amerika i Matu
3. Atia'e togi fa'apitoa mo vaega ole EV ma le 5G maualuga
4. Fa'atuina faiga fa'apa'aga ma le au toe fa'aaogaina e fa'atupe ai le fa'asologa o le tamaoaiga

Fa'atasi ai ma fuafuaga fa'ata'atia lelei, e mafai e tagata fa'atau atu PC ona fa'atautaia le lavelave o le si'osi'omaga tau fefa'ataua'iga 2025 a'o fa'atumauina le fa'atupula'ia o mana'oga i isi augatupulaga talosaga.